International economic consultant Prof Hiroyuki Hino has expressed confidence that Kenya can achieve major economic and social transformation within a generation, urging the country to pursue bold reforms, strengthen human capital and accelerate economic growth.
Speaking during the launch of the National Conversation, Beyond Vision 2030, Prof Hino challenged Kenyans who consider Singapore an unrealistic benchmark, arguing that Kenya has the human attributes needed to drive extraordinary economic growth.
“To sceptics, I would say Kenyans possess personal attributes that can power extraordinary growth. The Asian miracle was driven, in an important part, by the strength of its people: hard work, motivation, discipline, and cooperation,” he stated.
Prof. Hino acknowledged the significant economic gap between Kenya and Singapore, noting the Singapore’s income per person exceeded $80,000 last year, compared with slightly more than $2,000 in Kenya.
However, he said the disparity should not discourage Kenya from setting ambitious development targets.
He proposed that Kenya could reach or surpass Singapore’s current performance in three of four key measures of economic well-being by 2063, when Kenya marks its centenary.
The measures include childhood nutrition, learning outcomes and access to basic services.
According to Prof. Hino, Kenya could eliminate stunting within 10 years through concerted action, while closing the learning gap with Singapore would require an annual improvement of only 0.63%.
On access to basic services, he said Kenya could achieve universal access by 2063, noting that access to clean cooking fuel, currently the weakest area, could improve rapidly through new technologies.
Kenya Needs a ‘Quantum Leap’
Prof Hino identified income growth as the most difficult target to achieve, saying Kenya would need annual per-person income growth of more than 10% for 35 years to match Singapore’s current income levels.
He therefore urged Kenya to pursue a substantially higher growth trajectory rather than relying on incremental economic improvements.
“In other words, Kenya needs a quantum jump, a quantum leap to a substantially higher growth trajectory. This requires bold and transformative change,” he explained.
Prof Hino pointed to Kenya’s flower industry as an example of the transformation required across other sectors of the economy.
He noted that the industry became globally competitive by adopting new floriculture technologies and taking advantage of faster global transport networks.
“Kenya needs similar transformative changes throughout its economy and society,” he asserted.
He identified stronger fiscal management, infrastructure investment, essential services and private enterprise as key foundations for sustained economic growth.
Prof Hino also emphasised the need for Kenya to bring public debt under control while continuing to support private businesses.
However, he cautioned that these measures alone might not be enough to help Kenya escape the middle-income trap that has prevented many developing economies from attaining high-income status.
Against an increasingly uncertain global economic environment, he advised Kenya to target annual per-person income growth of 5%.
With population growth estimated at 1.5% annually, he said this would translate into GDP growth of approximately 6.5% a year.
Hino Puts Human Capital at Centre of Development
Prof Hino placed education and human capital at the centre of Kenya’s long-term development strategy.
He observed that Kenyan children demonstrate strong optimism, perseverance, connectedness and happiness, but said they require greater support in developing self-management skills.
He called for a review of the formal education system to expand learning beyond cognitive abilities and incorporate self-management and other capabilities that could strengthen productive, entrepreneurship and employment prospects.
Artificial Intelligence, he added, would also reshape economies and societies, although its full impact remains uncertain.
He urged Kenya to draw on leading global experts as it develops a new long-term national vision.
Inequality and Corruption Remain Major Challenges
Prof Hino identified inequality as another major obstacle to inclusive economic growth.
He noted that the poorest 20% of Kenyans receive only 5% of national income, while the richest 20% receive about half.
“Narrowing this imbalance would raise the income of ordinary households and bring Kenya closer to the income growth trajectory to Singapore we are looking for,” he said.
He proposed stronger government support for vulnerable citizens and greater recognition of small informal enterprises.
According to Prof Hino, informal businesses can grow rapidly and do not necessarily require subsidized government loans, with privately financed microfinance capable of supporting their expansion.
He also identified corruption as a central development challenge facing Kenya.
“Corruption damages the economy and weakens the social fabric. Curbing corruption would be truly transformative for Kenya,” Prof. Hino affirmed.
He called for full and consistent enforcement of conflict-of-interest laws and electronic procurement systems, while urging citizens to remain vigilant and use social media to expose corruption and demand accountability.
Invokes Raila’s Dream of a New Kenya
Prof Hino said the National Conversation should focus on childhood learning, support for vulnerable citizens, micro-business development and the fight against corruption, while allowing other ideas to emerge through public participation.
He also linked the initiative to the late former PM Raila Odinga’s vision of a Kenya where ordinary citizens can enjoy decent lives and young people are empowered to pursue their aspirations.
“Raila dreamed of a new Kenya where ordinary citizens enjoy a decent life and look to the future with full hope. HIs dream, Raila’s dream, was to empower young Kenyans to live their dreams,” he stated.
Prof Hino urged President Ruto to sustain the national process through to its conclusion and challenged Kenyans to embrace the ambition of transforming the country.
“Singapore is reachable,” he told Kenyans.
