Kenyans could soon feel the economic impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, with potential pressure on fuel prices following fresh cuts in crude oil supply by Saudi Aramco.
The state-owned oil giant has reduced crude deliveries to key Asian markets for the second consecutive month, with April 2026 allocations affecting major refining hubs in the United Arab Emirates, China, India, South Korea, and across Southeast Asia.
The supply cuts- particularly targeting heavier crude grades- are expected to constrain refinery output in these regions, reducing the volume of refined petroleum products available for export to markets such as Kenya.
India alone is projected to receive more than three million fewer barrels of crude oil this April, a shortfall likely to shrink its refined fuel exports to African countries.
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Refineries in South Korea and Southeast Asia are also scaling back production as feedstock supplies tighten, compounding pressure on global fuel supply chains.
Ripple Effects on Kenya
Kenya relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products, primarily sourced from the Middle East, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as from Asian refining hubs such as India and Southeast Asia.
Additional supplies from countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea mean that any supply disruption across Asia could impact multiple supply routes simultaneously.
The situation is further complicated by rising security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments through which a significant portion of Gulf exports transit.
According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia is limiting supplies to Asian buyers to Arab Light crude shipped via its Red Sea port of Yanbu, effectively cutting off heavier crude grades that many refineries depend on.
With the Strait of Hormuz becoming increasingly volatile, Riyadh has rerouted exports through Yanbu, tightening supply and capping refining output in Asia.
Local Concerns and Government Response
The global developments are already triggering local anxiety, with reports of fuel hoarding emerging at several petrol stations across Kenya.
However, State Department for Petroleum Principal Secretary Mohamed Liban has sought to calm fears, assuring the public that the country has sufficient fuel reserves.
“We have sufficient stock in the country, and we had an operational issue with super petrol. In the run-up to the weekend, we have seen a daily rise in petrol prices over the last two weeks because of speculation and panic buying,” Liban said.
He attributed the perceived shortages to hoarding by oil marketers anticipating supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
